Sunday, August 28, 2016

The Financial Winter is Nearing

Weathering Out Winter
Nature functions in cycles. Each 24 hour period can be divided into smaller cycles of morning, afternoon, evening, and night. The whole year can be divided into seasonal cycles. Similarly, one’s life can also be divided into cycles. Cycles are abundant in nature – we just have to spot them, understand them, and be prepared for them, because they happen whether we like it or not. Likewise, economic experts have noticed that the world also follows different cycles. An important pioneer in this field was the Russian social economist, Nikolai Kondratiev, also called Nikolai Kondratieff, a relatively unknown genius.

Who Is Kondratiev?
Geniuses have been known to defend their principles and beliefs, even at the cost of losing their lives; they may die but their legacy lives on, as did Kondratiev. He was an economist who laid down his life defending his beliefs. He was the founding director of the Institute of Conjuncture, a famous research institution, which was located in Moscow. He devised a five year plan for the development of agriculture in Russia from 1923-1925.

His book, “The Major Economic Cycles,” was published 1925, in which his policies were in stark contrast to that of Stalin’s. As a result of this, Kondratiev was arrested in 1930 and given a prison sentence. This sentence was reviewed, and, consequently, he was executed in 1938. What a tragic loss of such a genius at only 42 years of age. He was executed because his research proved him right and Stalin wrong! Nonetheless, his legacy lives on and, in 1939 Joseph Schumpeter named the waves Kondratiev Waves, also known as K-Waves.

What Are Kondratiev Waves?
Investopedia defines the Kondratieff Wave as, “A long term cycle present in capitalist economies that represents long term, high growth and low growth economic periods.” The initial study by Kondratiev was based on the European agricultural commodity and copper prices. He noticed this period of evolution and self correction in the economic activity of the capitalist nations and felt it was important to document.
Chart 1 CNA

These waves are long cycles, lasting 50-60 years and consisting of various phases that are repetitive in nature. They are divided into four primary cycles:

Spring Inflationary growth phase: The first wave starts after a depressed economic state. With growth comes inflation. This phase sees stable prices, stable interest rates and a rising stock market, which is led by strong corporate profits and technological innovations. This phase generally lasts for 25 years.

Summer Stagflation (Recession): This phase witnesses wars such as the War of 1812, the Civil War, the World Wars and the Vietnam War. War leads to a shortage of resources, which leads to rising prices, rising interest rates and higher debt, and because of these factors, companies’ profits decline.

Autumn Deflationary Growth (Plateau period): After the end of war, people want economic stability. While the economy sees growth in selective sectors, this period also witnesses social and technological innovations. Prices fall and interest rates are low, which leads to higher debt and consumption. At the same time, companies’ profits rise, resulting in a strong stock market. All of these excesses end with a major speculative bubble.

Winter Depression: This is a period of correcting the excesses of the past and preparing the foundation for future growth. Prices fall, profits decline and stock markets correct to the downside. However, this period also refines the technologies of the past with innovation, making it cheaper and more available for the masses. Accuracy Of The Cycle Over The Last 200 Years

The K-Waves have stood the test of time. They have correctly identified various periods of important economic activity within the past 200 years. The chart below outlines its accuracy.

Very few cycles in history are as accurate as the Kondratiev waves.
Chart 2 CNA

Criticism Of The Kondratiev Waves
No principle in the world is left unchallenged. Similarly, there are a few critics of the K-Waves who consider it useful only for the pre-WWII era. They believe that the current monetary tools, which are at the disposal of the monetary agencies, can alter the performance of these waves. There is also a difference of opinion regarding the timing of the start of the waves.

The Wave is Being Pushed Ahead But the Mood Confirms a Kondratiev Winter
Chart 3 CNA
Chart 4 CNA
A closer study reveals that the cycles are being pushed forward temporarily. Any intervention in the natural cycle unleashes the wrath of nature, and the current phase of economic excess will also end in a similar correction. The K-Wave winter cycle that started in 2000 was aligned with the dot-com bubble.

The current stock market rise is fueled by the easy monetary policy of the global central banks. Barring a small period of time from 2005-2007 when the mood of the public was optimistic, the winter had been spent with people in a depressed social mood. The stock market rally from 2009-2015 will be perceived as the most hated rally and the one most laden with fear.

Every dip of a few hundred points in the stock market starts with a comparison to the Great Recession of 2007-2009. The mood exudes fear and disbelief that the efforts of the central banks have not been successful and are unable to thwart off the winter, as predicted by the K-Waves. The winter is here and is reflected in the depressed social mood.

How To Weather Out Brutal Winter
In the last phase of the winter cycle, from 2016-2020, which is likely to test us, the stock market top is in place. Global economic activity has peaked, terrorism further threatens our lives, geopolitical risks have risen, the current levels of debt across the developed world are unmanageable, and a legitimate threat of a currency war occurring will all end with the “The Great Reset.” Gold will be likely to perform better during this winter cycle. Get in love with the yellow metal; it’s the blanket which will help you withstand the winter.

Conclusion
Cycles are generally repetitive forces that give us an insight into the future so we can be prepared to face it and prosper. Without excessive intervention, nature is very forgiving while correcting the excesses. But if one meddles with nature, it can be merciless during the correction. The current economic condition will end with yet another reset in the financial markets. Prices will not rise forever, and a correction will take hold eventually. Until then, we follow and trade accordingly. I will suggest the necessary steps to avoid losses and prosper from market turmoil when it unfolds.

Follow my analysis at:  The Gold & Oil Guy.com

Chris Vermeulen



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Tuesday, August 23, 2016

Will The Bubble Pop Regardless if the Fed Never Raises Rates?

The current overall SPX pattern is a broadening top, which is usually a very reliable pattern. The market continues to look as though it wants to go even lower. The momentum shift, which I have been expecting, has been slow to start, however one should be prepared for this occurrence ahead of time. Nevertheless, the large divergences which I have been viewing, in my proprietary oscillators, are most real, and, once the selling starts, the momentum should quickly move to the downside.

The current market is being supported by a lack of sellers more so than aggressive buying. With investors still thinking that there is no other place to store their money, they appear to be content with leaving their money with risk on assets within a market that is pushing to all time highs. This type of mentality usually leads to large losses rather than big gains. There isn’t any real opportunity for growth in the SPX that I can see right now.

Dow Theory: Market Indexes Must Confirm Each Other
The Dow Theory was formulated from a series of Wall Street Journal editorials which were authored by Charles H. Dow from 1900 until the time of his death in 1902. These editorials reflected Dow’s beliefs regarding how the stock market behaved and how the market could be used to measure the health of the business environment.

Dow first used his theory to create the Dow Jones Industrial Index and the Dow Jones Rail Index (now Transportation Index), which were originally compiled by Dow for TheWall Street Journal. Dow created these indexes because he felt they were an accurate reflection of the business conditions within the economy, seeing as they covered two major economic segments: industrial and rail (transportation). While these indexes have changed, over the last 100 years, the theory still applies to current market indexes.

Market indexes must confirm one another. In other words, a major reversal from a bull or bear market cannot be signaled unless both indexes (generally the Dow Industrial and Transports Averages) are in agreement. Currently, They are DIVERGING, issuing MAJOR NON-CONFIRMATION HIGH the Dow Jones Industrial average. If one couples this with the volatility index, this is a warning sign and a recipe for disaster.

chart 1


The FEDs’ monetary policy over the last eight years has led to unproductive and reckless corporate behavior. The chart below shows U.S. non financials’ year on year change in net debt versus operating cash flow as measured by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITA).

Chart 2
The growth in operating cash flow peaked five years ago and has turned negative year over year. Net debt has continued to rise, which is not good for companies.

This has never before occurred in the post World War II period. In the cycle preceding the Great Recession, the peaks had been pretty much coincidental. Even during that cycle, they only diverged for two years, and by the time EBITA turned negative, year over year, as it has today, growth in net debt had been declining for over two years. Again, the current 5 year divergence is unprecedented in financial history. Today, most of that debt is used for financial engineering, as opposed to productive investments. In 2012, buybacks and M&A were $1.25 trillion, while all R&D and office equipment spending were $1.55 trillion. As valuations rose, since that time, R&D and office equipment grew by only $250 billion, but financial engineering grew by $750 billion, or three times this!

You can only live on your seed corn for so long. Despite there being no increase in their interest costs while growing their net borrowing by $1.7 trillion, the profit shares of the corporate sector peaked in 2012. The corporate sector, today, is stuck in a vicious cycle of earnings manipulation management, questionable allocation of capital, low productivity, declining margins and growing debt levels.

Conclusion:

In short, I continue to pound on the table to help keep you and fellow investors aware that something bad, financially, is going to take place – huge events like the tech bubble, the housing collapse a few years back, and now national financial instability. Experts saw all these events coming months and, in some cases, years in advance. Big things typically don’t happen fast, but once the momentum changes direction you better be ready for some life changing events and a change in the financial market place.

Follow my analysis in real time, swing trades, and even my long term investment positions so you can survive from the financial storm The Gold & Oil Guy.com



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Monday, August 15, 2016

Why These Huge Bank Stocks Could Go to Zero

By Justin Spittler

Europe’s banking system looks like it’s about to implode. As you probably know, Europe has serious problems right now. Its economy is growing at its slowest pace in decades. Policymakers are now more desperate than ever and are on the verge of introducing more "stimulus" measures. And Great Britain just voted to leave the European Union (EU).

These are all major concerns. But Europe’s biggest problem is its banking system. Over the past year, the Euro STOXX Banks Index, which tracks Europe’s biggest banks, has plummeted 46%. Deutsche Bank (DB) and Credit Suisse (CS), two of Europe’s most important banks, are down 63%. Both are trading at all time lows. We've warned you to stay away from these stocks. As we explained two weeks ago, Europe’s banking system is a complete disaster.

And it’s only getting worse by the day..…

European bank stocks have crashed over the past couple days. Yesterday, every major European bank stock ended the day down. Several fell more than 5%. A few plunged more than 10%. These are giant declines. Remember, these banks are the pillars of Europe’s financial system. Today, we’ll explain why this banking crisis could reach you even if you don’t live in Europe. But first, let’s look at why European bank stocks are crashing.

Europe’s banking system has major problems..…
Europe’s economy is barely growing. And negative interest rates are killing European banks. Regular readers know negative rates are a radical government policy. The European Central Bank (ECB) introduced them in 2014, thinking they would “stimulate” Europe’s economy. You see, negative rates basically turn your bank account upside down.

Instead of earning interest on your money in the bank, you pay the bank to hold your money. The geniuses at the ECB thought they could force people to spend more money by “taxing” their savings. But Europeans aren’t spending more money right now. They’re pulling cash out of the banking system and sticking it under their mattresses…where negative rates can’t get to it.

Negative rates are also eating into European bank profits…
Today, the ECB’s key interest rate is at -0.4%. This means European banks must pay €4 for every €1,000 they keep with the ECB. That might not sound like much. But it’s a big problem for European banks that oversee trillions of euros. According to Bank of America (BAC), European banks could lose as much as €20 billion per year by 2018 if the ECB keeps rates where they are.

The Euro STOXX Banks Index plunged 2.8% on Monday..…
Yesterday, it fell another 4.9%. The selloff hit everywhere from Frankfurt to Milan. Spanish banking giant Santander closed the day down 5%. The Bank of Ireland fell 8%. And Commerzbank AG, one of Germany’s biggest lenders, fell 9% to a record low. Commerzbank’s stock plunged after it said negative rates were eating into its profits.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse fell 3.7% and 4.7%, respectively. Investors dumped these stocks after learning that both are going to be dropped from the Euro STOXX 50 index, Europe’s version of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Italian stocks fell even harder yesterday..…
UniCredit, Italy’s largest bank, fell 7% before trading on its stock was halted. Regulators stopped the stock from trading due to “concerns about its bad loan portfolio.” The stock has plunged 72% over the past year. Bank Popolare di Milano, another large Italian bank, fell 10%. And Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Italy’s third biggest bank, plummeted 16%. Monte Paschi plunged after a banking watchdog said it was in the worst shape of all European banks. It’s down 85% over the past year.

Italy is ground zero of Europe’s banking crisis..…
Right now, Italy’s banks are sitting on about €360 billion in “bad” loans, or loans that trade for less than book value. That’s almost twice as many bad loans as Italian banks had in 2010. According to the Financial Times, bad loans now account for 18% of all of Italy’s loans. That’s more than four times as many bad loans as U.S. banks had during the worst of the 2008–2009 financial crisis.

Policymakers are scrambling to contain the crisis..…
Last month, the Italian government said it may pump €40 billion into its banking system to keep it from collapsing. A couple weeks later, Mario Draghi, who runs the ECB, said he would support a public bailout of Italy’s banking system. That’s when the government gives troubled banks money and makes taxpayers pay for it.

We said these emergency measures wouldn’t fix any of Italy’s problems. At best, they’ll buy the government time. Unfortunately, policymakers will almost certainly “do something” if Europe’s banking system continues to unravel.

The ECB could cut rates again, which would only make it harder for European banks to make money. It could also launch more quantitative easing (QE). That’s when a central bank creates money from nothing and pumps it into the financial system. Right now, the ECB is already “printing” €80 billion each month. But again, this hasn’t helped Europe’s stagnant economy one bit.

Whatever the ECB does next, you can bet it will only make things worse..…
As we've shown you many times, governments don’t fix problems. They only create them or make problems worse. If you understand this, you can make a lot of money betting that governments will do the wrong thing.

Casey Research founder Doug Casey explains:
The bad news is that governments act chaotically, spastically.
The beast jerks to the tugs on its strings held by various puppeteers. But while it’s often hard to predict price movements in the short term, the long term is a near certainty. You can bet confidently on the end results of chronic government monetary stupidity.
According to Doug, gold is the #1 way to protect yourself from government stupidity..…
That’s because gold is real money. It’s protected wealth for centuries because it’s unlike any other asset. It’s durable, easily divisible, and easy to transport. Unlike paper money, gold doesn’t lose value when the government prints money or uses negative interest rates.

These stupid and reckless actions push investors into gold. They can cause the price of gold to soar. This year, gold is up 27%. It’s trading at the highest level since 2014. But Doug says it could go much higher in the coming years. If Europe’s banking system continues to unravel, investors will panic. Fear could spread across the world like a wildfire. And gold, the ultimate safe haven, could shoot to the moon.
If you do one thing to protect yourself, own physical gold.

We also encourage you to watch this short video presentation.
It talks about a crisis that’s been brewing since the last financial crisis—one that's currently being fueled by government stupidity. The bad news is that we’re already in the early stages. The good news is that you still have time to seek shelter. You can learn about this coming crisis and how to protect yourself by watching this free video. We encourage all of our readers to do so. It’s one of the most important warnings we’ve ever issued. Click here to watch it.

Chart of the Day

Deutsche Bank’s stock is in free fall. You can see in today’s chart that Deutsche Bank has plummeted 75% since 2014. Yesterday, it hit a new all time low. If Deutsche Bank keeps falling, investors could lose faith in the financial system. And a panic could follow. At least, that’s what Jeffrey Gundlach thinks.

Regular readers know Gundlach is one of the world’s top investors. His firm, DoubleLine Capital, manages about $100 billion. Many investors call him the “Bond King,” a title that PIMCO founder Bill Gross held for years. Like us, Gundlach thinks Europe’s banking system is in serious trouble. And like us, he thinks European policymakers will spring into action if things start to get ugly. Reuters reported last month:
"Banks are dying and policymakers don’t know what to do," Gundlach said. "Watch Deutsche Bank shares go to single digits and people will start to panic… you'll see someone say, 'Someone is going to have to do something'."
Right now, Deutsche Bank is trading under $13. Less than three years ago, it traded close to $50. If Europe’s bank stocks continue to plunge, the ECB will likely “double down” on its easy money policies. This won’t repair Europe’s economy… It will destroy the euro, the currency that the ECB is supposed to defend.
This is why it’s so important that you “crash proof” your wealth today. Click here to learn how.



The article Why These Huge Bank Stocks Could Go to Zero was originally published at caseyresearch.com.


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Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, August 14, 2016

How to Profit From These Massive, Brexit Induced Trends

By Justin Spittler

This has the makings of a classic speculative opportunity—one where politically caused distortions are liquidated and prices readjust. But a word of caution. It’s going to take place within the context of the Greater Depression. And, as Richard Russell, who lived through the last depression, observed: In a depression, nobody wins. The winner is just the person who loses the least.

The EU will disintegrate. It never made sense from the beginning to try to get Swedes to live by the same rules as Sicilians or Germans by the same rules as Portuguese. Not to mention that the rules are entirely arbitrary. Worse, almost all the rules are economic in nature, with legislated winners and losers. Deals like that always lead to resentment, among both the winners and the losers.

In addition to this, the EU is very problematical when it comes to immigrants. There will be more migrants trying to settle in Europe. Why? Because the Muslim world, the swath of countries extending all across northern Africa, through the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Far East, is likely to become increasingly unstable. The EU, as a very politically correct organization is loathe to turn them away. However, once they’re within Schengen, the migrants can travel anywhere. Perhaps where welfare benefits are best and where other migrants are gathering. Remember, when times get tough, both politicians and the capite censi look for someone to blame.

How to profit from this? Most people don’t think the EU will collapse just because Britain (which has always been closer to the U.S. than the Continent anyway) has left. They’re wrong. For one thing, although Brussels won’t become a ghost town, it’s going to lose scores of thousands of highly paid Eurocrats and their minions. I recall that property there was some of the cheapest in Europe in the early ’80s, it’s going to return to that status. We’ll look for a REIT to sell short, specializing in the Brussels market.

It will accelerate the disintegration of nation-states everywhere. 

There are about 200 nation-states in the world. The international “elite,” the “intelligentsia,” the members of the Deep State everywhere, and organizations like the EU in Brussels, would like to see a much smaller number of more powerful states. Orwell anticipated just three mega-states in his dystopia. But the actual trend is in the opposite direction.

It’s not just the UK seceding from the EU, but Scotland from the UK. The Basques and Catalans may eventually secede from Spain. Belgium, a totally artificial country, may eventually break up into Flemish-speaking Flanders and French speaking Wallonia. France has half a dozen secession movements. Italy was only unified into its present form from scores of principalities, duchies, and baronies in 1871 by Garibaldi. It was the same with Germany until Bismarck in 1871. 

The break-up of the USSR in 1990 into 13 smaller states was a good start, but Russia itself is a small empire with dozens of distinct ethnic and linguistic groups. You will rarely hear about this in the mass media, but there are dozens of secession movements throughout Europe. That’s one more reason why (in addition to the interest rate risk and the inflation risk, which are both substantial) you should stay away from long-term government bonds.

The euro will cease to exist.....
The Esperanto currency was doomed from the beginning. It was not just an “IOU nothing,” like the U.S. dollar, but a “Who owes you nothing” since it’s not even backed by a specific government’s taxing power. How to profit? I’ve put on long-term futures contracts, long the British pound vs. short the euro. My rationale is simple. Britain will benefit from exiting the EU, attracting capital and strengthening the pound—which is down 11% against the euro since Brexit. The euro, meanwhile, will approach its intrinsic value at an accelerating rate.

A truly major banking crisis.....
Much worse than that of 2007–2009. Governments, who are all bankrupt, borrow money from commercial banks. Commercial banks have lent it to them because they believe it’s a risk free loan. Governments encourage them to lend recklessly, hoping that will jump-start sluggish economies. Central banks, which are the arms of their governments, have taken interest rates to zero and below for that reason and to make it easier for governments to service their debt. This policy has encouraged businesses to take on debt.

It’s an idiotic and reckless experiment that will end—likely in this cycle—with bankrupt central banks and governments bailing out bankrupt commercial banks and businesses. Just the way they did in 2007–2009. Except this time, the situation is much more serious. How to profit? Don’t own European companies, stocks or bonds, and banks in particular. In fact, even though they’re already down considerably, they’re going lower and are excellent candidates for short sales, or the sale of naked calls.

A panic into gold..... 
You’ve heard this story many times before here. But it’s truer than ever as we approach a genuine crisis. There are no stable paper currencies anywhere in the world. The dollar has been strong only because it’s liquid. Liquidity is good, but here, we’re talking about liquid like nitroglycerin. Hedge funds will start buying gold in size. As will central banks, who don’t want to hold each other’s paper. As will individual investors. Right now, few people even think about gold, much less understand it. How to profit? Buy gold. I expect we’ll see it well over $5,000 this cycle. Silver should do even better in relative terms. And gold stocks have explosive upside.

An exodus of capital and people from Europe.....
to parts of Latin America, plus to the U.S., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. This is, obviously, bad for Europe and good for the recipient countries. In recent years, I might not have included Latin America, but things have changed. Argentina and Colombia are liberalizing economically. The continent isn’t involved in any entangling alliances, isn’t on the migration highway, and has low costs. Why a wealthy European would stay in that stagnant and unstable continent when he could live better, and mostly tax free, at a fraction of the cost in Argentina is a mystery to me.

Chaos in Africa..... 
Almost every country in Africa is an ex-European colony. Over the last 50 years, Europe, with the U.S. and now China, have shipped over a trillion dollars to the continent. Most of it has been recycled back to Europe by the African elites that stole it, and the rest has mostly been wasted. 

That flow is going to stop for a number of reasons, but among them is that it makes no sense in an “every-man for himself” world. At the same time, essentially all of the world’s population growth over the next couple of decades is going to come from sub Saharan Africa. It’s a nasty economic environment that’s a formula for conflict. 

Millions of Africans will want to emigrate, especially to the homelands of their ex-colonial masters in Europe. They won’t, however, be welcome. How might one take advantage of this? The higher population is going to put upward pressure on commodities, and the chaos is going to make their production much riskier in Africa.

In conclusion..... 
Brexit itself is likely to be good for Britain. And it augurs some big changes in the world at large. Don’t forget that it will all be in the context of both the Greater Depression and the accelerating and world-changing technological revolution I described last month. Our objective here remains to not only keep you advised of what’s happening, but help you profit from opportunities while avoiding major dangers.

Editor's note: The biggest threat to your wealth right now isn’t an economic recession, a stock market crash, or even a global banking crisis. It’s something much bigger and far more dangerous. This short video explains more…

It explains how violent currency moves—like we’re seeing today—have preceded some of the worst financial disasters in history. By the end of the video, you’ll know why you can’t afford to ignore the warnings we’re seeing right now. You’ll learn how to protect yourself and profit from the coming crisis. Click here to watch this free video.



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Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, June 26, 2016

Don Kaufman shows us how to "Protect & Profit" in any Market

Today we want to introduce the newest member of our team, Don Kaufman. Don has made quite a mark in the last couple months with the introduction of his new TheoTrade program. Truth is, some of our readers have stated they are getting more from his free videos then some of the more expensive programs they have purchased.

Don will be bringing us a free webinar monthly to keep us on the cutting edge of these extremely volatile markets. Just take advantage of any one of his free items. Getting his free eBook or even just watching his most recent free video will guarantee that you will get notified of the free webinars.

So what's in the "How to Protect & Profit in Any Market" eBook?

This 50 page eBook [visit here for free download] will teach you what you need to know to start playing the markets instead of the markets playing you.

Your Portfolio Deserves More Than a 50/50 Chance 
It has been shown statistically, over the long run, that fundamental and technical analysis is right about 50% of the time. Flipping a coin will give you the same percentage. As the author of A Random Walk Down Wall Street, Malkiel states, “Technical and Fundamental analysis is a science giving astrology a good name.” Why flip a coin when you can use high probability options strategies?

Diversification is Dead
As a Wall Street saying goes, "When they raid the house they take everyone." Professionals consider diversification as a hedge for people who don’t know how to hedge. Think about it - would you protect the value of your own home against a potential fire by diversifying, that is, buying two houses so if one burns down, the appreciation in the other offsets your loss? Of course not! You insure your home so if it burns down, the insurance covers most of the loss. Welcome to one aspect of using options. Real professionals know how to use options to protect their portfolio from any shock to the markets.

Be The House 
Today, investing in the stock market is a big gamble, almost like going to Vegas and playing the slots. And we all know what happens with slot machines. The House always wins. It may take a loss occasionally, but the overall strategy assures that the House will always come out on top. Options let's you turn the tide and be the house. Find out how you can put the odds in your favor.

Get Don's FREE eBook "The Rebel's Guide to Trading Options"....Just Visit Here!

See you in the markets,
Hedge Fund University

About Don Kaufman 
Don is one of the industry's leading financial strategists and educational authorities with 18 years of financial industry experience. Prior to co-founding TheoTrade, Mr. Kaufman spent 6 years at TD Ameritrade as Director of the Trader Group. At TD Ameritrade Mr. Kaufman handled thinkorswim® content and client education which included the design, build, and execution of what has become the industry standard in financial education. He started his career at thinkorswim® in 2000 (acquired by TD Ameritrade in 2009), where he served as chief derivatives instructor, helping the firm progress into the industry leader in retail options trading and investor education services.

Saturday, June 4, 2016

Great New Video: Two Critical Things Every Options Trader Must Know


Our trading partners at Simpler Options are back with another free webinar. This time it's "Precise Short Term Options Setups for Low Risk Profits in Volatile Markets" hosted by John Carter and Chris Belcher.

As always John and Chris have provided a free video to give you some hints as to what we will be covering....Watch that video now!

It all starts this Tuesday June 7th at 7:00 pm central.

Just visit this link to reserve your seat for this game changing webinar right now since all of these webinars get over subscribed.

Watch Todays Video and Sign Up for the Webinar Right Here

These two highly respected traders (with more than 50 years of combined experience) reveal low risk option strategies designed to catch quick explosive moves in volatile stocks. Get ready to take notes because we’re going to review results from actual live trades executed in real time during current market conditions.

Red Thumb Trades: Stop wasting time (and precious capital) on dud stocks. Discover how to find the right options to trade on the right stocks today.

Precision Exit Strategies: Finally know when to take fast profits intraday and when to let your position turn into a swing trade so you can get maximum gains.

Simple Option Setups: Cut through all the jargon and ‘Greek’ mumbo jumbo and learn how to follow a step by step process to create consistent income trading stock options.

The Ultimate Timing Secret: How to know in advance which stocks are likely to explode (in any time frame) and when to jump in with confidence

Miracle Grow Positions: Simple rapid growth strategies for small accounts. Discover why it’s possible to make a whole lot more money with options than you can with trading stocks. The key is to follow a few precise option setups.

Massive Mistakes Exposed: Learn why most traders will never be consistently profitable and discover how to actually profit from the most common (and costly) mistakes.

The Perfect Storm: Why the current volatile conditions are a trader’s paradise, and key catalysts to watch for in the coming months.

Case Study: Review one of John's live trades on TSLA that brought in $17k in 1 day (along with several other recent real money examples so you can see these setups in action).

As always, make sure you get your reserved seat now while you and make sure you log in early on Tuesday so you don't lose your spot.

Reserve Seat Right Here and Now

See you Tuesday evening,
Hedge Fund University


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Sunday, March 20, 2016

Four Trading Strategies That Work

If you have been following us this year you already know that our trading partner Chris Vermeulen has been spot on in 2016 and has helped our readers make profitable trade after profitable trade this year. We have followed and worked with many traders over the years so we know what trading information is useful and what is just junk information.

Chris' connects with most readers through his complimentary stock trading and education newsletter which includes simple trading strategies to use with stocks, options, futures or forex.

Get Chris' newsletter "The Four Trading Strategies That Work" right HERE!

We hope you enjoy the free content and learning from some new tips and tricks for your own trading toolbox. To further add value Chris has put together a way for you to learn some of his trading strategies which cover stocks, options, futures and forex.

Bookmark this link since you can only select one free trading strategy at a time when you optin to the form on this special webpage below. But I should note, if you want a second or third strategy you just need to revisit the optin page, optin, and select another strategy.

These strategies are only available for a couple days then Chris takes them down so click the link below and optin to be presented with the four trading strategies.

Click here to get the free "Four Trading Strategies That Work"


See you in the markets.
Hedge Fund University



Stock & ETF Trading Signals

Sunday, February 28, 2016

New Video: John Carters Strategy for Trading Everything from Crude Oil to NFLX

Our trading partner John Carter of Simpler Options is back with another amazing new video. Join John as he walks us through his favorite strategies to utilize in today's volatile market. Get a sneak peak on how he has already grown his account by 48% in 2016.

Visit Here to Watch John's New Free Video

Learn John's favorite strategy for trading everything from Crude Oil to NFLX and why John believes that decades from now investors will look back at 2016 as the best trading ever. You will also get an insider look at.
  •  The reasons why volatility can be your best friend even for newbies with small accounts
  •  Why options are the best trading vehicle on the planet right now
  •  Why down markets are better than up markets
  •  How to make successful trades on your phone while you are at work
Watch John's free video then put his methods to work right away. Take advantage of his ability to help you find your own trading style and how to recognize your own psychological limits. In the process John will help you dispel all of your fear of this volatile market. In fact you will welcome it.

Don't wait any longer.....Just Click Here to Watch John's Free Video

See you in the markets,
Hedge Fund University

P.S.  Get an even better understand of John's trading methods by downloading his free eBook "Understanding Options".....Get it Right Here



Thursday, November 26, 2015

New Video: John Carter's Proven Strategies for Q4 and 2016


 
There are very few traders that have as unique of a story as our friend and trading partner John Carter. From watching his dad place his trades as "hand draws" to becoming a successful trader himself. It wasn't an easy path he took.

There have been lots of bumps, direction changes, and heartbreak along the way. But through time John has learned that if you want to have a 6 figure trading account like his, options are your best way to get there.

Today John is sharing with us his latest free video that will give us an insight into how he will be using options to close out the year and moving forward into 2016.

WatchJohn's Proven Strategies for Q4 and 2016

In this FREE video from John will give you two proven strategies he's using in 2016 that are sure to work for you. Now, when a trader like John Carter says "hey, here are my two best strategies" you'd be nuts not to at least hear him out and see if it can be applied to what you are doing.

So click here for his best two 2016 strategies

And here's what else he's showing you in this free video:

  *  His two proven Strategies John used to make 30k last week!

  *  How to make and find successful trades from your phone

  *  How to Successfully Trade 2016 Economic Disasters

  *  How to find trades that won't run your stops

John even shows you exactly what he's currently trading. This is my favorite part.....just watch!

See you in the markets putting this to work!
Hedge Fund University



While you are here get John's latest FREE eBook "Understanding Options"....Just Click Here!


The World's First Cashless Society Is Here - A Totalitarian's Dream Come True

By Nick Giambruno

Central planners around the world are waging a War on Cash. In just the last few years:
  • Italy made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal;
  • Switzerland proposed banning cash payments in excess of 100,000 francs;
  • Russia banned cash transactions over $10,000;
  • Spain banned cash transactions over €2,500;
  • Mexico made cash payments of more than 200,000 pesos illegal;
  • Uruguay banned cash transactions over $5,000; and
  • France made cash transactions over €1,000 illegal, down from the previous limit of €3,000.
The War on Cash is a favorite pet project of the economic central planners. They want to eliminate hand-to-hand currency so that governments can document, control, and tax everything. This is why they’re lowering the threshold for mandatory reporting of cash transactions and, in some instances, simply making it illegal to pay cash.

In the U.S., central planners ratchet up the War on Cash every time the government declares a made-up war on something else…a war on crime, a war on drugs, a war on poverty, a war on terror…..

They all end with more government intrusion into your financial affairs. Thanks to these made-up wars, the U.S. government is imposing an increasing number of regulations on cash transactions. Try withdrawing more than $10,000 in cash from your bank. They’ll treat you like a criminal or terrorist. The Federal Reserve is at the center of the War on Cash. Its weapons are inflation and control over the currency denominations.

Take the $100 note, for example. It’s the largest bill in circulation today. This was not always the case. At one point, the U.S. had $500, $1,000, $5,000, and even $10,000 notes. But the government eliminated these large notes in 1969 under the pretext of fighting the War on Some Drugs. Since then, the $100 note has been the largest. But it has far less purchasing power than it did in 1969. Decades of rampant money printing have inflated the dollar. Today, a $100 note buys less than a $20 note did in 1969.

Even though the Federal Reserve has devalued the dollar over 80% since 1969, it still refuses to issue notes larger than $100. This makes it inconvenient to use cash for large transactions, which forces people to use electronic payment methods. This, of course, is what the U.S. government wants. It’s exactly like Ron Paul said: “The cashless society is the IRS’s dream: total knowledge of, and control over, the finances of every single American.”

Policymakers or Central Planners?

On stories related to the War on Cash, you may have noticed that the mainstream media often uses the word “policymakers,” as in “policymakers have decided to keep interest rates at record low levels.” When the media uses “policymakers,” they are often referring to central bank officials. It’s a curious word choice. As far as I can tell, there is no difference between a policymaker and central planner. Most people who want to live in a free society agree that central planning is not a good idea. So the media uses a different word to put a more neutral spin on things.

To help you think more clearly, I suggest substituting “central planners” every time you see “policymakers.”

The World’s First Cashless Society

In 1661, Sweden became the first country in Europe to issue paper money. Now it’s probably going to be the first in the world to eliminate it. Sweden has already phased out most cash transactions. According to Credit Suisse, 80% of all purchases in Sweden are electronic and don’t involve cash. And that figure is rising. If the trend continues - and there is nothing to suggest it won’t - Sweden could soon be the world’s first cashless society.

Sweden’s supply of physical currency has dropped over 50% in the last six years. A couple of major Swedish banks no longer carry cash. Virtually all Swedes pay for candy bars and coffee electronically. Even homeless street vendors use mobile card readers. Plus, an increasing number of government restrictions are encouraging Swedes to dump cash. The pretexts are familiar…fighting terrorism, money laundering, etc. In effect, these restrictions make it inconvenient to use cash, so people don’t.

So far, Swedes have passively accepted the government and banks’ drive to eliminate cash. The push to destroy their financial privacy doesn’t seem to bother them. This is likely because the average Swede places an unreasonable amount of trust in government and financial institutions. Their trust is certainly misplaced. On top of the obvious privacy concerns, eliminating cash enables the central planners’ latest gimmick to goose the economy: Negative interest rates.

Making The Negative Interest Rate Scam Possible

Sweden, Denmark, and Switzerland all have negative interest rates. Negative interest rates mean the lender literally pays the borrower for the privilege of lending him money. It’s a bizarre, upside down concept. But negative rates are not some European anomaly. The Federal Reserve discussed the possibility of using negative interest rates in the U.S. at its last meeting. Negative rates could not exist in a free market. They destroy the impetus to save and build capital, which is the basis of prosperity.

When you deposit money in a bank, you are lending money to the bank. However, with negative rates you don’t earn interest. Instead, you pay the bank. If you don’t like that plan, you can certainly stash your cash under the mattress. As a practical matter, this limits how far governments and central banks can go with negative interest rates. The more it costs to store money at the bank, the less inclined people are to do it.

Of course, central planners don’t want you to withdraw money from the bank. This is a big reason why they want to eliminate cash…so you can’t. As long as your money stays in the bank, it’s vulnerable to the sting of negative interest rates and also helps to prop up the unsound fractional reserve banking system. If you can’t withdraw your money as cash, you have two choices: You can deal with negative interest rates...or you can spend your money.

Ultimately, that’s what our Keynesian central planners want. They are using negative interest rates and the War on Cash to force you to spend and “stimulate” the economy. If you ask me, these radical and insane measures are a sign of desperation. The War on Cash and negative interest rates are huge threats to your financial security. Central planners are playing with fire and inviting a currency catastrophe.

Most people have no idea what really happens when a currency collapses, let alone how to prepare. How will you protect your savings in the event of a currency crisis? This just-released video will show you exactly how. Click here to watch it now.

The article was originally published at internationalman.com.


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